RBI likely to go for status quo on rates

Mumbai: The RBI may again keep the key interest rate unchanged in April as it is likely to focus more on bringing down inflation to the 4 per cent target after concerns over economic growth abated with GDP growth estimated at nearly 8 per cent, said experts.

Also, the Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) - may take cues from the central banks of some major economies like the US and UK, which are apparently in wait-and-watch mode on interest rate cuts. Switzerland has become the first major economy to cut interest rates, while Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, ended its eight-year period of negative interest rates regime. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for April 3-5. The decision will be announced on April 5 (Friday). It will be the first bi-monthly monetary policy of fiscal 2024-25.

A total of six MPC meetings are scheduled for the fiscal beginning April 1, 2024. The Reserve Bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then it has held the rate at the same level in its last six bi-monthly policies.

“Given that inflation is still in the 5 per cent range and there is a possibility of future shocks on the food inflation front, the MPC is expected to maintain the status quo on rate and stance this time,” said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. He further said there can be a revision in the GDP forecast, which will be eagerly awaited.

“The growth in FY24 has been much better than expected, and hence, the central bank will have less concerns here and will continue focusing on targeting inflation,” Sabnavis added.

India posted 8.4 per cent economic growth in the December quarter of the fiscal 2023-24. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has revised GDP estimates for the first and second quarters of this fiscal to 8.2 and 8.1 per cent from 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Icra, said the upward revision in the NSO’s GDP growth estimates for the first and second quarters of fiscal 2023-24, three successive quarters of 8 per cent plus GDP expansion and the CPI print of 5.1 per cent for February 2024, suggest status quo on rates and stance in the upcoming April meeting.

“Icra believes that the policy stance is unlikely to be changed before the August 2024 MPC review until there is visibility on the monsoon turnout as well as on the sustenance of the growth momentum and the US Fed’s rate decisions,” she said.